House Proceeding 03-15-07 on Mar 15th, 2007 :: 0:04:51 to 0:37:34
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Speech By: Edward J. Markey

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Edward J. Markey: shot. mr. bartlett: i want to thank my friend for joining me. this is absolutely a bipartisan issue. i don't know that energy and oil knows the difference between a democrat and a republican.

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: i'm pleased that you joined me on the floor. might say just a word about these two philosophies that are keeping us from really focusing on this issue. one is an almost reverence for the marketplace.

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Speech By: Roscoe G. Bartlett

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: there are many people who believe the marketplace is omneshent, it knows everything, and omnipotent, it is all powerful and will solve everything. i believe the market is very powerful, but

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: there are some things god can't do. god can't make a square circle. there are some things the marketplace will not be able to do. i do not think the market signals with be responded to quickly

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: enough to meet this challenge. if there were infinite resources this blind faith in the market might have some rell venice. there are not infinite resources. the oil out there is, in fact, finite.

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: the other is the near worship of scientists and technology. don't worry, they'll fix it. i mentioned one of our really high officials in government that, you know, peak oil was a reality and that

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: it just wasn't going to be there in the future in the amounts we need for our economy. i guess when that happens the price will go up and people will use less and they'll find something

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: else. and that solves the problem, don't worry, they'll fix it. i point to two societies, the mayan society, that department get fixed and they are gone, the cliff dwellers in the west,

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: their world is gone. i'm sure they were saying when it was deteriorating, they were saying, don't worry. they'll take care of it. then there is easter island. when we found the last survivors they were living

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: in caves and eating rats and each other. they had done in that litt part of the planet what we may be doing to the whole planet, they were living beyond their total resources and somebody didn't

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: fix it. the next chart looks at a number of the experts and what their predictions are that this peak oil that mr. markey was talking about is going to occur. notice we are now here in twen

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and notice there is a large number of them here. campbell, dufayes, matt simmons, several of them i know personally. their predictions are in the very, very near time frame. dufayes believes we now

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have passed peak oil. he used to a prognosticator, now he is a historian. he is looking back at peak oil. a few believe it will be between 2010 and 2016 and sira, shell, and no visible peak,

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: a few who belief it is sometime in the future. we will have an opportunity to talk about cira and their projections. the large percentage of all of ethose looking at this and studying this

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: believe that peak oil is either present or imminent. the next chart is really interesting. if you had one chart to look at, this is the most instructive of all of the charts that we have.

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: on this one chart it shows the discovery. that is the large bars here. you see that we, back in the 1940's, we were discovering lots and in the 1950's and 1960's, huge amounts of oil. since

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: 1980 it has been down, down, down that is in spite of ever better technologies for discovering oil and ever better incentives. when reagan came to office that was in 1980. we were already 10

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: years down the other side of hubbert's peak. we knew that m. king hubbert was right. we reached the peak. i like ronald reagan. i can like a person without liking what he can do. i'm convinced

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: his solution to this oil problem was totally the wrong solution. his belief was that if you gave them a profit incentive they would go out there and find it. so they gave them a profit incentive

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: and boy did they drill. i don't have it with me. i have a chart that shows how much oil was found. drilling didn't help. you can't find what's not there and you can't pump what you haven't

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: found. in spite of ever better techniques like 3-d seismic and computer modeling, we know what the whole globe looks like geologically except maybe we would like to know more about saudi arabia and

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: the caspian. we know the geology and know that gas and oil can occur in unique geological formations. now, the dark line here represents the use of oil. you see, for a long while, we were finding

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: enormously more oil than we were using. from about 1980 on, we were finding less and less and using more and more. by the way, notice this blip in the 1970's. this is the result of the embargo.

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: had this kept going up where would it be? there was a stunning statistic up through the carter years, through this time. every decade we used as much oil as had been used in all of previous

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: history. wow. what that says is that when you used half of all the oil in the world there would be one decade left at current use rates. obviously, that couldn't happen. you could use it

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: and fall off the cliff at the end because the last remaining oil is harder and harder to get. 1980 on we have been eating into our reserves. we have to take some of this surplus and fill

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: in this area here. what will the future look like? this chart presumes it will peak in 2010. you can make the future within limits look differently depending on how aggressive you want

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: to be in using enhanced oil recovery. if you want to live everywhere in the world, if you drill 10 wells rather than one in the oil patch, you get the oil out quicker. you are not going to get

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: any more oil, but you will get it out more quickly. so there may be some argument about what the future looks like. there can be no argument you can't pump what you haven't found. if

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: you put a smooth curve over this discovery curve, the area under that curve represents the total amount of the discoveries. that is the total amount representing these individual bars. if you

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: look at the area under the use curve, that will be the amount of oil that we have used. now, obviously, another the end of the day, those two areas are going to be the same. so unless you

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: think that we're going to reverse this discovery curve and find a lot more oil and some people do think that, by the way. we'll talk about that in a moment. unless you think we are going find

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a lot more oil, the future cannot look very much different than this because you can't pump what you haven't found and the area under this discovery curve cannot be different than the area

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under the use curve. there are many people who are projecting uses that would just indicate that we're going to have to find enormously more oil in the future. one of those projections is

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: in this the next chart. . this is from our energy information agency. and this is projections of discoveries. now this is -- and they didn't draw a smooth curve. they took in some of the

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: humps theer. this -- humps here. this is the projections of discoveries. back in the year 2000 they were projecting what we would find in the future. now they used some very interesting

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: assumptions here. the usgs has done a series of simulations. they have some computer modeling. and they have done a series of computer modeling, thousands of these, if this is true, if that

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: is true, then what will the likely amount of yet-discovered oil will be, and they have charted these things. and they have the frequency on the ordinant. and on the abcisis they have the year.

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: they're running that model. as they change the assumptions they will change the amount of oil they think they'll find. so they've begun to the midpoint of that and they said that was -- it is

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: called p. they are talking about probabilities, and that's bizarre because these are not probabilities. this is the fraction of oil that you will find more or find less than this. so what is the

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: p-95. that's 95% probability, they say. and then they have the p-50. that's really f-50 in the data they took this from. and then they have the five. and what they say is 50 is halfway between

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: five and 95 and that's the mean and that's probable. so their projection was when they made this chart is that this downward slope is going to go up. of course if they really are probabilities

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: and they didn't start -- it started these fractional things but it ended up being projected here as probabilities, if they really are probabilities, there should be another green line down here

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: and another blue line down here. it's like that little funnel shape thing that you see from the hurricane. tomorrow you're pretty certain where it's going to be. the day after tomorrow you're

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: less certain so it's going to be a big funnel as you go out. so that's what these various probabilities are. now not surprisingly, the actual data points have followed the 95% probability. if you

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: say those are probabilities, obviously these 95% probable it's a whole lot more probable than 50% probable. but for what it's worth, the actual data points for a decade or so have been following

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: the 95% probability. the next chart, this is from the hirsch report. i will note what the hirsch report is. there are two major studies that have been financed by our government. one was financed by

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the department of energy. and that was saic report. and dr. hirsch, which is why it's called the hirsch report, and dr. hirsch was the leading investigator on that. and this came out a year and

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a half ago, roughly. i think we have quotes from it later. they looked at this situation peaking of world oil productions: impacts, mitigation and risk manage! it's going to peak? what should we

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: do about it? what are we going to do about it? that was in the report. well, this was one of the charts from the report. and this is taken from -- these are usgs estimates of ultimate recovery.

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: and this is the f that i was talking about. although they somehow changed it to p. but this 95% low, high 5%. just a word about what these numbers are. these are 1,000 giga barrels. now we use gigabarrel

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: because a billion in england, as i understand is a million million. a billion is 1,000 million. if you are talking about billions it may confuse some people. but everybody knows what a giga

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: is. and a giga is our billion. we are talking about gigabarrels of oil. so this is 2,248 gigabarrels. that, by the way, is roughly the amount of oil that most of the world's experts believe we

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: have found. and we used about half of that. we used about 1,000 gigabarrels of oil. so there are about 1,000 that we have yet to use. but what this prognostication indicates is that we are

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: going to find as much more oil, another roughry 1,000 gigabarrels -- roughly 1,000 gigabarrels. now that's conceivable. i think it's about as likely as winning the lottery. i don't think there's

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: that much probability of that happening. but even if that was true, and that's the stunning thing that this chart shows, even if that was true, that only takes the peak out to 2016. that's

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: just around the corner. that's nine years away. even if that is true. this is the power of the exponential function. and one of the most interesting lectures that i ever heard was given

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: by dr. albert bartlett, amayor tuss college university, no relative of mine. i wish he was. he gives the exponential function. one is worth spending just a moment on. the story is told that the

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: chest was developed in an ancient kingdom and the king was so pleased at the development of the invention of chess that he asked the inventor to come in and he promised him any reasonable

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: thing. and the inventor of the chess game said, oh, king, i'm a very simple person. i have simple needs. if you just take my chess board and put a grain of wheat on the first square and two

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: grains of wheat on the second square and four grains and keep doubling until you fill off of the 64 squares of my chess board, that will be reward enough. and the king said to himself, simple

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: fellow. he could have asked for something meaningful and all he's asked for is a few grains of wheat on a chess board. of course the king could not deliver because it's my understanding that

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: it would take the world's harvest today of a decade to fill the chess board. that's the power of exponential growth. albert einstein was asked about what the next great power in the universe would

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: be after the discovery of nuclear energy. and he said the most powerful force in the universe was the power of compound interest. well, dr. albert bartlett's fascinating one-hour lecture -- and

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: just do a google search for dr. bartlett, albert bartlett in energy and you can pull it up. he has some very interesting illustrations in there. he said the biggest failure of our industrialized society

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: is to understand the exponential growth. but even if we were to find as much more oil of all the oil that now exists, it would push the peak out to 2016. if you used enhanced oil recovery

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: and pump a lot of co-2 down there and a lot of steam and so forth, maybe you can push it out to 2037. look what happens after that. he fall off a cliff is what they say. the next chart is an interesting

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: chart from cera in an article entitled "undulating plateau versus peak oil." there will not be any peak. and i looked at this. by golly, it looks like a peak. it goes up and it comes down.

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: now they have several different assumptions in here and it's easy to sort out. this is roughry that two trillion, the current known amount of oil. and if that's all the oil there is, they

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: agree that the peak is pretty imminent. but they believe that we're going to find about as much more conventional oil as still exists in reserves. if that's true then the peak only moves out this

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: far. and then they think we're going to get a lot of oil from the unconventional oil sources, like the canadian tar sands and our western oil shells and the really heavy oil from venezuela.

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: and if we get that, then we're going to go up that high a plateau. but it's still a plateau. and you know, i have 10 kids, 15 grandkids and two great grandkids. wouldn't it be nice if we left a little

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: energy for them? we're bequeathing them the largest intergenerational debt transfer in the history of the world. i'd like to leave them a little energy, thank you, which is why i don't vote to

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: drill in anwr and why i don't vote to drill off-shore. i think there is a real moral element to this discussion. if we are going to bequeath them this horrendous debt, then i think it's doubly

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: immoral of giving them a world in which we raped all the oil. someone suggested in the future, and when they look back at what we've done and say, how could the monsters have done that? i hope

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: they don't say that about this generation because i hope that we will do -- that we will do better. and i think this confirms that there will be a peak oil. the next chart here is a statement

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: from one of the experts in this field. dr. laherrere says the usgs estimate implies a five-fold increase in discovery rate and reserve addition for which no evidence is presented. such an improvement

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: in performance is in fact utterly implausible, he says, given the great technological achievements of the industry over the past 20 years, the worldwide search and the deliberate effort to find

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the largest remaining prospects. and we found a pretty big one recently out in the gulf of mexico under, what, 7,000 feet of water. roughly 30,000 feet of rock. if you notice, they're not

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developing that yet, i'm told. and not everything i'm told is true because it's sometimes hard to get the correct facts. they said they'll develop it when oil is $211 a barrel because that

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is what it will cost to get it out of there. i'm not sure if that's true or not. the next chart -- i mentioned the oil chart that we showed before as being the single chart that i would use if

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: i had only one. if i was awarded two charts to use, i would use the upper part of this. this is a really revealing chart. this goes back to about 400 years of, i guess, 5,000 years of

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: recorded history. hyman rickover said it is 8,000 years of recorded history. i might diagrees for a moment -- i hope to come to talk about a really interesting speech that hyman rickover, the father

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: of our nuclear submarine, gave to a group of physicians in st. paul, minnesota 50 years ago, the 15th of this may. and he notes that we have 8,000 years of recorded history. and he said at that

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: time 50 years ago we are about 100 years into the age of oil. this now introduces us to that age of oil. it was introduced by the industrial revolution, which started with wood. the hills of

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: new england, the mountains taking charcoal to new england to make iron. up in fredrick -- frederick county, which i represent up there, they denewted the hills up in game brell where camp --

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: gambrel where camp david is, it's an historical site. and the industrial revolution began with wood. on the ordinant here is the quadrillion b.t.u.'s. this is the measure. then we found coal.

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: boy. then the industrial revolution took off. but it really took off when we found gas and oil. and notice how that is standing up. and notice what happened at the arab oil embargo here in the

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: 1970's. where would we be if that hadn't happened? and that was really a wake-up call. as a result of that we today have enormously more efficient appliances than we had them. your air-conditioners

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: is probably three times as efficient as it was then. and your refrigerators, the same thing. too bad our cars didn't follow that path, isn't it? well, an interesting thing is that the world's

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: population just about followed this curve. for awful these 8,000 years of recorded history, we have somewhere between half a billion and a billion people globally, worldwide. . now with the industrial

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: revolution the population has exploded. we now have almost seven billion people in the world. there is in hyman rickover's speech, a fascinating discussion of the contribution of energy to the

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: development of civilization. i hope to come to the floor on may 15. we'll spend the whole hour talking about his speech. it was so prophetic. as a matter of fact, he predicted what we

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: have just observed, if we start making too much energy from a food substance, the price of food will go up. we have made rather trifling amounts of ethanol from corn and we are doubling the

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: price of corn. we are hurting the poor people who use tortillas and the dairymen are losing money month by month. well, this is a striking symbolism here. in another 100, 150 years, we

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: will be down the other side of the age of oil. this is going to fall off. is there any reason the world shouldn't follow the microcomple of the united states? m. king hubbert predicted

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: we would peak right on schedule. if he was right about the united states, why shouldn't he be right about the world. why shouldn't we have been doing something about that. for the last 27 years,

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: since 1980, we have known very well that m. king hubbert was right about the united states. if he was right about the united states, maybe, just maybe, he would be right about the world.

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: no mat what what we do, drill the equivalent of a half million wells, millions worldwide, it still goes downhill no matter what we have done. very interesting. in 8,000 years in recorded

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: history the age of oil will be but a blip. 300 years. what will our world then look like? well, our next chart introduces us to that. sooner or later, whether we like it or not, we will

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: transition from fossil fuels because they will one day be gone. we will transition from fossil fuels to renewables. and this chart looks at the options that we have. we have some finite sources

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: and we need to come back for another hour and talk in detail about some of these finite sources that we have here and what their potential is and let the listener judge as to what contribution

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: they think will be made from this. one of the challenges we have is the fantastic density of energy in our fossil fuels. one barrel of oil has in it the energy equivalent of 12 people working all

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: year long. hyman rickover gives fascinating examples of this in his speech to physicians nearly 50 years ago. he said each worker in the factory, that each worker in the factory had at his disposal

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: the power equivalent of 244 men turning the wheels and so forth for him. that every family had the mechanical system stoves and vacuum cleaners and so forth that represented the work of 33

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: full-time faithful household servants. 100,000 men pushed your car down the road and 700,000 men, the equivalent energy of 700,000 men pushed the jet plane through the sky. two little examples

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: that will help you get your mind around this. just think how one -- how far one gallon of gasoline or diesel, by the way, still cheaper than water in the grocery store. how far that one gallon

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: takes your car. i drive a prius. it takes my prius about 50 miles. how long would it take me to pull my prius 50 miles. you work really hard all day. i get more work out of an electric motor

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: than less than 25 cents worth of electricity. about 25 cents worth of electricity. that may be humbling to represent that you are worth less than 25 cents a day in terms of fossil fuel. that

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: is the reality. that is why we have such an incredibly high standard of living, why we live so well. because we have this incredible energy source at our disposal. well, we now -- the challenge is

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: to transition to ultimately the renewable forms of energy that will provide the same quality of life. we have some finite resources that we can go through. the tar sands, the oil shales, the coal

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: nucleus figgs, nuclear fusion. we don't have time to talk about these in detail. we will come back and and talk about it in detail. all the renewables, these will all be gone except nuclear. if

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: we ever get fusion we are home free. if we go to breeder reactors we buy some problems, but have relatively secure energy if you can handle the waste from that. all of these will be gone. there

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: is only so much tar sands, oil shale and coal. they come with pretty polluting processes. ultimately we will be down here getting our energy from all of these resources. solar, wind, geothermal, ocean

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: energy, agricultural resources, soy diesel,bio -- biodiesel, ethanol, methanol, biomass. the president the other evening was saying there is going to be limited amounts of energy we

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Roscoe G. Bartlett: can get from ethanol because already we doubled the price of corn. now we need to turn to biomass. cellulosic ethanol, liberating the flew cose so tightly bound in the -- the glucose so tightly

0:35:00 to 0:35:20( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: bound in the starch molecule that enzymes in our body can't liberate it. there are mike robes that live in -- microbes that live in cockroaches and the stomach of cows and sheep and goat and the

0:35:20 to 0:35:37( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: appendix of goats and guinea pigs that does that for them. so the celluloic ethanol is liberating the glucose. a word of caution, the huge stream of waste we have is as a result of profligate

0:35:37 to 0:35:53( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: use of fossil fuels. in an energy deficient world there would be nowhere nears much waste. it will not be the ultimate solution to our problem. hydrogen. i just want to make sure that hydrogen

0:35:53 to 0:36:04( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: is not an energy source. we talk about it because when you burn it you get water that is pretty darn clean. it is a great applicant candidate for fuel cells if we ever get fuel cells. twice the

0:36:04 to 0:36:19( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: efficiency. think of hydrogen as a battery, something to carry energy from one source to the other. we have only a few moments replaining. i would like to put a few charts up, that will introduce

0:36:19 to 0:36:40( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: us to a longer discussion that we'll have next time. we're very much like the young couple whose grandparents have died and they have established a lot of lifestyle where 80% of the

0:36:40 to 0:36:58( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: money they spend comes from their inheritance and 15% from what they are earning. with are getting 85% from fossil fuel and 15% from renewable. we have to make more or use less. a bit more

0:36:58 to 0:37:23( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: than half of all of this other than fossil fuel energy is nuclear power. 8% total use, 20% of electricity. it probably could and should be more than that conventional hydroelectric is peaked

0:37:23 to 0:37:34( Edit History Discussion )

Roscoe G. Bartlett: out. we'll come back and we'll spend a full hour talking about the potentials of these. they are exciting challenges. thank you, mr. speaker, i yield back. the speaker pro tempore: under the

0:37:34 to 0:37:45( Edit History Discussion )

Tim Ryan: speaker's announced policy of january 18, 2007, the gentleman from ohio mr. ryan, is recognized for 60 minutes as the designee of the majority leader. mr. ryan: thank you, madam speaker.